Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#22
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#15
Pace53.3#350
Improvement-2.2#278

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#29
First Shot+7.7#20
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#120
Layup/Dunks+7.0#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#18
Freethrows-1.7#281
Improvement-3.7#336

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#25
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#64
Layups/Dunks+1.9#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#4
Freethrows+3.8#12
Improvement+1.5#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 10.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 67.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round98.7% n/a n/a
Second Round68.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen31.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight14.0% n/a n/a
Final Four5.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game2.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.9% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 54   Nevada W 81-63 80%     1 - 0 +25.2 +31.4 -1.4
  Nov 16, 2016 321   Prairie View W 110-72 99%     2 - 0 +24.7 +34.1 -8.2
  Nov 19, 2016 47   @ Dayton W 61-57 61%     3 - 0 +17.4 +5.1 +13.0
  Nov 22, 2016 206   San Jose St. W 81-64 97%     4 - 0 +11.6 +15.1 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2016 193   UAB W 76-63 94%     5 - 0 +11.4 +16.8 -2.9
  Nov 30, 2016 95   @ Stanford W 66-51 80%     6 - 0 +22.3 +13.2 +12.6
  Dec 08, 2016 81   Texas Arlington L 51-65 88%     6 - 1 -10.4 -15.8 +4.2
  Dec 11, 2016 143   UC Irvine W 84-53 94%     7 - 1 +29.6 +25.9 +8.2
  Dec 14, 2016 229   Western Kentucky W 73-51 97%     8 - 1 +15.2 +8.1 +10.8
  Dec 20, 2016 207   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-46 97%     9 - 1 +15.5 +1.5 +17.3
  Dec 22, 2016 335   South Carolina St. W 74-47 99%     10 - 1 +10.5 +1.0 +13.6
  Dec 29, 2016 170   @ Loyola Marymount W 72-60 90%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +14.4 +3.5 +11.3
  Dec 31, 2016 240   San Diego W 72-60 98%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +4.6 +15.1 -7.2
  Jan 05, 2017 74   BYU W 81-68 85%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +18.0 +22.4 -2.5
  Jan 07, 2017 104   @ San Francisco W 63-52 82%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +17.5 +7.7 +11.7
  Jan 12, 2017 265   @ Portland W 74-33 96%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +37.3 +13.0 +31.0
  Jan 14, 2017 1   @ Gonzaga L 56-79 16%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +3.9 +8.0 -8.9
  Jan 19, 2017 227   Pacific W 62-50 97%     16 - 2 6 - 1 +5.3 +10.5 -0.5
  Jan 21, 2017 292   Pepperdine W 85-65 99%     17 - 2 7 - 1 +9.2 +11.7 -0.7
  Jan 26, 2017 104   San Francisco W 66-46 91%     18 - 2 8 - 1 +21.4 +9.8 +15.5
  Jan 28, 2017 110   @ Santa Clara W 72-59 84%     19 - 2 9 - 1 +18.7 +24.3 -1.7
  Feb 02, 2017 227   @ Pacific W 74-70 94%     20 - 2 10 - 1 +2.4 +13.5 -10.5
  Feb 04, 2017 240   @ San Diego W 71-27 95%     21 - 2 11 - 1 +41.7 +17.1 +37.0
  Feb 09, 2017 265   Portland W 51-41 98%     22 - 2 12 - 1 +1.2 -7.0 +11.7
  Feb 11, 2017 1   Gonzaga L 64-74 29%     22 - 3 12 - 2 +11.8 +9.5 +1.0
  Feb 16, 2017 170   Loyola Marymount W 81-48 95%     23 - 3 13 - 2 +30.4 +25.3 +12.2
  Feb 18, 2017 74   @ BYU W 70-57 72%     24 - 3 14 - 2 +23.1 +9.5 +14.9
  Feb 23, 2017 292   @ Pepperdine W 78-49 97%     25 - 3 15 - 2 +23.3 +10.1 +17.1
  Feb 25, 2017 110   Santa Clara W 70-56 92%     26 - 3 16 - 2 +14.7 +14.3 +3.5
  Mar 04, 2017 265   Portland W 81-58 97%     27 - 3 +16.7 +17.7 +2.2
  Mar 06, 2017 74   BYU W 81-50 79%     28 - 3 +38.6 +26.0 +17.9
  Mar 07, 2017 1   Gonzaga L 56-74 22%     28 - 4 +6.3 -2.7 +8.3
Projected Record 28.0 - 4.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 98.8% 98.8% 6.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 8.2 20.5 36.5 25.6 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.3 98.8%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 6.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 8.2 20.5 36.5 25.6 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.3 98.8%